The Champions League has become European football’s most exclusive party: you either have a ticket or you covet one.

It guarantees sporting prestige but the competition’s appeal also comes from the financial riches on offer, and these are about to climb. UEFA forecasts suggest the Champions League’s new format, including a 36-team league phase, will see an extra £372million ($477m) in prize money will be distributed every season from the start of the 2024-25 campaign.

Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool are already assured of qualification for next season and Aston Villa could join them this weekend. But for Manchester United, Newcastle United, Chelsea and, most likely, Tottenham, the cost of missing out will sting.

The Athletic assesses how much clubs can look to make from the Champions League in 2024-25.

Times are changing in the Champions League, but how?

UEFA’s flagship competition has grown big but there has long been a fixation with making it bigger. Next season brings those ambitions to pass, with an expanded tournament opening the door for four more clubs to take their places at the table.

The new format has been explained excellently on The Athletic but scrapping the traditional group stage in favour of one big league phase brings a marked spike in games. There will be 189 Champions League fixtures from next season instead of the current 125 and more games means more money for those involved.

A drive to increase revenues through TV rights and commercial deals has always been central to the Champions League modifications. The threat of a European Super League focused minds within UEFA in 2021 and, under pressure from the European Club Association (ECA), there was a revised competition signed off in 2022. The restless elite were pacified with more Champions League games (eight minimum) and the promise of a higher yield.

UEFA estimates that total revenue across its four competitions (Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League and Super Cup) will climb from €3.5billion (£3bn; $3.78bn) this season to €4.4bn next, and see the money distributed to participating clubs rise by almost €600m. The Champions League prize pot alone is estimated to stand at roughly €2.47billion for 2024-25, up from €2.03billion this season.

That represents close to a 22 per cent rise in revenue to be carved up.

How is the distribution model being altered?

The new format also brings changes to how the money will be split, with greater weight given to performances on the pitch.

The existing distribution model sees money split four ways: 25 per cent of total revenues are given out in participation fees, 30 per cent in performance-related fees, another 30 per cent on a club’s 10-year co-efficient calculation and a final 15 per cent for a ‘market pool’. That is shaped by the value of TV rights sold in a club’s country.

The system favoured the establishment. A club with a modern history of competing in UEFA competitions based in an elite league would have payments weighted in their favour. Paris-Saint Germain, for example, were eliminated from the 2022-23 Champions League in the round of 16, yet earned €27m more than quarter-finalists Benfica.

Champions League television revenues are sky-high (Alex Caparros/Getty Images)

Distribution of the greater revenues will change next season, with 27.5 per cent ring-fenced and split equally among all 36 clubs and an improved 37.5 per cent given out in performance-related payments.

The final 35 per cent will now be allocated through a new ‘value pillar’. That will be a payment determined by the value of broadcasters’ rights in the country a club is based in and the club’s UEFA coefficient ranking.

Each of the 36 clubs will be ranked by an average of the two calculations, with one share given to the club in 36th position, all the way through to the 36 shares given to the top-ranked club. It is safe to assume that Manchester City, Real Madrid, PSG and Bayern Munich will all feature prominently at the top end.

“Sporting performance can go either way and there will be upsets, but with the way money is being distributed, it cements the competitive advantage held by the big clubs,” says Dr Dan Plumley, a sports finance expert and lecturer based at Sheffield Hallam University.

“You look at the numbers and that’s the reality of it. It’ll still benefit the clubs that regularly go deep into the Champions League.”

Talk cold hard cash: what’s it going to be worth?

Let’s begin with a caveat. The numbers being forecast by UEFA last month are not set in stone but the estimates are unlikely to be far off.

The simplest starting point is what qualification as one of the 36 competing clubs will bring: a cheque for €18.6m, up from the €15.6m of this season.

How much the end-of-season balance is topped up is then shaped by performances. Every win in the league phase is expected to bring €2.1m, with a draw worth €700,000. And the higher you finish in the 36-team league, the more you can expect. Finishing top will bring in the region of €10m, with a sliding scale of merit payments all the way down. Clubs in the top eight will get an additional €2m as a bonus for qualifying for the knockout stages, with €1m going to those from ninth to 16th.

The 16 teams ranked ninth to 24th will go into a play-off to decide who progresses to the round of 16 for an additional €11m. Qualify for the quarter-finals and it will be €12.5m, the semi-finals €15m and the final €18.5m. The winning team can expect another €6.5m, as well as further €4m for reaching the UEFA Super Cup final in 2025.

Manchester City and Sevilla line up for the UEFA Super Cup final last August (Claudio Villa/Getty Images)

All of these staggered instalments bring increases from the current sums, using a performance-related pot that is forecast to stand at €915m. The kitty for performance-related payments this season was only €600m.

The unknowns come from how much a club stands to make from the new value pillar. How each club is ranked and rewarded will not be known until the make-up of the 36 teams is complete. A position will be decided by where a club is based and how much that country contributed to media revenues (formerly the market pool calculation), as well as where the club is ranked in UEFA’s coefficient.

There will be a European part and non-European part splitting revenues from the two markets, but topping both ranking tables will likely bring in around €45m.

Manchester City and Liverpool will be close to the top of those distribution metrics, owing to their European performances in recent seasons, but Aston Villa, like Newcastle this season, can expect a more modest windfall.

Villa are currently ranked 81st in the UEFA coefficient but can improve that by overcoming their first-leg semi-final defeat to Olympiacos and making it to the Europa Conference League final. Villa’s ranking in the value pillar, should they hold on to fourth position in the Premier League, would also be enhanced by England being among the biggest contributors to the overall media revenue pot.

“The value pillars are still be decided but each club will get a ranking within that which will dictate how much money they get,” adds Plumley. “The Premier League is still likely to win in that argument because of their strength in the market pool.

“If you were to win everything in the revamped format — taking into account all your league fixtures, being top of market pools and going all the way — I’ve got the numbers around the €161million mark based on UEFA’s guidance.

“The baseline, ballpark sum for an English club is minimum £50m, the sum we’ve usually attached to Champions League qualification, but there will be scope for more next season. It’s going to be more lucrative because of changes to the distribution and the English clubs will continue to win because of their position in the market pool.”

The last official UEFA numbers on record come from the 2022-23 season, when Manchester City’s first Champions League title returned them just under €135m.

Any English club, theoretically ranked in the top half of UEFA’s value pillar, will earn at least €70m if they were to progress automatically to the last 16 next season. And all for playing eight matches.

Manchester City earned €135m from last season’s Champions League (Michael Steele/Getty Images)Is there more to be made and how does it tally with FFP rules?

The bulk of revenue associated with Champions League qualification will come from UEFA but clubs can expect to make more than just the central distributions. There is the guarantee of one extra home game, bringing in anything between £2m and £4m in matchday revenues. Liverpool, with Anfield’s capacity extended to 61,000, are sure to benefit from their Champions League return.

Then there are the kickers in commercial deals, that can typically see additional revenue paid on the back of reaching European football’s elite competition.

And, in this world of increasing financial scrutiny, it all comes in useful. Clubs playing in UEFA competitions next season will not be allowed to spend more than 80 per cent of revenue on wages, transfers and agents in 2024-25, a figure that will fall to 70 per cent by 2025-26.

“The only way you make the new ratios work is either cutting costs or growing revenue,” adds Plumley. “We know most clubs aren’t keen on cutting costs so it’s all about growing revenue. The extra distribution from Champions League goes into that.

“It’s an extra home matchday guaranteed. That’s not just tickets — it’s hospitality packages and sponsorship deals. More games means more exposure. All that adds up. Spurs are a good example, they’ve set the benchmark on how much money can be made on matchday.”

Remuneration from the Europa League and Europa Conference League will also bring the chance to increase revenues next season. The total money paid out to Europa League clubs next term will be €565m, up from €465m of this season. That could bring a club close to €40m in prize money.

The Europa Conference League, meanwhile, is forecast to begin with a central pot of €285m, up from €235m. West Ham United’s victory in the 2022-23 competition brought them prize money of €22m when going all the way. A club the size of Manchester United could make more than in matchday revenue if they end up in a competition they might rather avoid.

(Top photo: Michael Steele/Getty Images)

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The Athletic assesses how much clubs can look to make from the Champions League in 2024-25

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